The new try for a cessation of hostilities so far let to relative calm in the country. However, this is not surprising and well-known from previous attempts: No party would risk losing sympathy in the early hours of an agreement that, for a moment, draws enormous worldwide attention to Syria . It remains to be seen how the U.S.-Russian brokered deal will develop. While most of the players in Syria cautiously welcome the agreement they emphasize their right to self-defense. And there’s the rub.
If no real accompanying political process is initiated, Syria’s armed opposition is not likely to observe in silence how its so far indispensable military ally Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Nusra) is going to be targeted. So far, JFS has shown effective skills to reignite violence and portray the following escalation as a proof of its position as an essential actor of the Syrian revolution.
If no prospects of political development will emerge soon, this cessation of hostilities will be just another breather before a new round of fighting. President Assad’s latest comment at his visit to Daraya that he is going to recover every area from terrorists - so far his term for the whole opposition - paints a bleak picture for the needed negotiations.