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| April 12 · Issue #85 · View online |
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MENAroundup MENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Middle East, focussing on Syria and Iraq. lars@menaroundup.com
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- East-Ghouta is back under regime control. Jaysh al-Islam’s surrender officially ends the Assad-regime’s campaign that killed at least 1500 people within the last seven weeks. Now, thousands of rebels and their families are deported to northern Syria, many of them to the Euphrates Shield area. It will be interesting to see how the Turkish-led forces will integrate the new batch of fighters.
- Jaysh al-Islam’s surrender came a day after the latest chemical attack that targeted the rebel’s last stronghold Duma. There is no ultimate proof that the Assad regime is responsible for the attack. However, the Assad regime has used chemical weapons, including chlorine and sarin, frequently. I wrote an article regarding the false-flag theories, you find the link below.
- After the attack, the US, UK and France threatened with retaliation. For hours it looked like a US strike was imminent. But Trump’s statements have become more moderate and it looks like negotiations, including Turkey, will prevent a military operation. So what’s left? US strikes are not off the table and no one knows what is going on behind closed doors. What is noteworthy is the international management of former US President Obama’s “red line”. That line wasn’t only a threat, it also gave the Assad regime and its allies green light to do anything that wasn’t related to chemical attacks. Crossing that line on a large scale provokes the reaction of Western powers that created that very line in order to not get involved too much in the first place. Therefore, what we see now is the contradictory situation that illustrates the Western power’s obliquity: Getting involved - but not too much.
- Another observation concerns a pattern that shaped the (armed) opposition’s calculus since the beginning of the unrest - and left them disappointed: After Trump’s threats appeared to be serious, various rebel groups asked for more support and launched small attacks. They hoped that the Western powers/international community would finally enforce the red lines they created and that the Assad regime ignored dozens, if not hundreds, of times. That is one of the reasons why many desperate Syrians joined radical groups since 2012: Because they are the ones who are not affiliated with outside powers.
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Allerletzte rote Linie?
German read: I argue that the endless discussion about false flag theories has to stop. One reason is that solid evidence proves that Assad not only has motives to use chemical weapons but that he actually did it many, many times.
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How the Assad Regime Tracked and Killed Marie Colvin for Reporting on War Crimes in Syria
Marie Colvin was killed in 2012 when she was targeted by artillery strikes intentionally. To express his thanks, Maher Assad gifted the head of the informant ring that broadcasted her position a new car.
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Jihadist In-fighting and the Birth of Horas ad-Deen
Confused by the jihadi alliances in northern Syria? This is a good overview about the establishment of Horas ad-Deen, a formation that has its roots in the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/Jabhat al-Nusra universe.
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Is Saudi Arabia Turning Against Wahhabism?
Mohammed Bin Salman recently said that he was “not familiar” with Wahhabism, the ideology that accompanies the Saudi kingdom since it was founded. MBS is aware of Wahhabism, of course, but the statement highlights the ongoing struggle between the Saudi monarchy and the Wahhabi establishment. The Saudis needed Wahhabism to create their kingdom, but the ideology has become a blessing and a curse at the same time.
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