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| April 5 · Issue #84 · View online |
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MENAroundup MENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Middle East, focussing on Syria and Iraq. lars@menaroundup.com
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- According to the Pentagon, the two US and British soldiers that were killed by an IED in Manbij last week were part of a special forces operation targeting a senior ISIS member.
- At the same time, President Trump made remarks that the US would leave Syria very soon given that the mission would cost too much and achieve too little. Trumps remarks highlight an apparent dispute between the State Department and the Pentagon/military institutions about the US’s Syria strategy. Turkey heats things up by threatening the YPG in Manbij. My cautious forecast: The US will abandon their Kurdish allies sooner or later in favor of good relations with Turkey. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will end up in infighting.
- However, until such deals are made, the US tries to forestall any swift action that could create new facts on the ground. So US forces established a new base near Manbij that sends a clear message to Turkey: “We’re not intending to leave”.
- ISIS still controls territory in eastern Syria. And the group is expanding. The jihadists are are now advancing around Abu Kamal, a former stronghold at the Syrian-Iraqi border.
- By smashing Eastern Ghouta, the Assad regime has underlined that there will be no mercy for those who reject the so called reconciliation agreements (aka surrender). While Jaysh al-Islam and Russia are still negotiating a deal for the city of Duma, rebels in other enclaves near Damascus and northern Homs are already informed that they will share Ghouta’s fate if they dare to resist.
- Turkey has set up its 8th observation post in the Turkmen Mountain area at the border between Idlib and Latakia.
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Trapped between rebels and air raids, civilians in Eastern Ghouta face chaos
Aron Lund provides this helpful article about the humanitarian situation in Eastern Ghouta and the shelters in Damascus. One aspect that is interesting in particular: Based on the circulating data, approximately 200,000 people lived in Eastern Ghouta before the latest government offensive started. These are only rough numbers, but it appears that the UNs estimation of 392,000 inhabitants was exaggerated.
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Documenting Syrian Arab Army's Armoured Vehicles Losses
Jakub Janovský analyzed tons of footage and found out that the Syrian Army lost at least 2,037 armoured vehicles since the start of the war. That means that the SAA lost more than a quarter of its fleet. These numbers refer to visually confirmed incidents. So the real numbers are likely higher.
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Understanding Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha’bi
The so called Popular Mobilization Forces (PMU) that emerged after the Iraqi Army got humiliated by ISIS in 2014 are a key player in Iraq but also in eastern Syria, where they also operate. Most media outlets refer to the umbrella group for more than 100.000 fighters as “Iranian-led Shia militias” or something like that. However, its important to understand the heterogeneity of the PMUs. This piece is a great basis.
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