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| February 7 · Issue #76 · View online |
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MENAroundup MENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Middle East, focussing on Syria and Iraq. lars@menaroundup.com
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- Rebels in Idlib have shot down a Russian Su-25 near the town of Saraqeb, where Russian warplanes conducted dozens of airstrikes last week. It is not clear which rebel faction exactly did it (both HTS and Jaish al-Nasr claimed it) but maybe thats the idea: The usage of MANPADS has always been a sensible political issue because these weapons could change the military balance in Syria significantly. It is conceivable that Turkey gave green light. Note that it is a rebel faction very close to Turkey that handed over the pilot’s dead body.
- In response, Russia fired Kalibr missiles from warships in the Mediterranean (the ones they use when they *really* want to express their anger about something) and intensified airstrikes. Dozens of civilians have died in attacks that deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure.
- In close proximity, the Turkish army has finally set up an observation post in al-Eis, a town ca. 30 km southwest of Aleppo and south of the Aleppo-Damascus M5 highway. According to the Turkish military, artillery fire by ‘terrorists’ (-> pro-regime militias ) killed one Turkish serviceman. There might be some smaller skirmishes in the future, but it is likely that Turkey has negotiated its advance and won’t leave al-Eis soon. Expect more observation posts to be set up.
- In Afrin, the Turkish army and pro-Turkish rebels were able to make gains on some of the at least 11 smaller frontlines. However, the gains are limited and the Turkish army lost 8 soldiers on Saturday alone. Additionally, Russia appears to have closed the airspace above Afrin since rebels have downed a Russian Su-25 on Feb. 3. Reports that the regime has deployed anti-aircraft missiles to the northwest indicate that the pro-regime side is keen to send a strong message that its air supremacy is a red line.
- Meanwhile, the US is keen to ensure that no one gets distracted from the one true fight against the Islamic State. A spokesperson for Operation Inherent Resolve said that the US wouldn’t support forces who join the battle in Afrin any more. That could affect at least 1000-2000 fighters and their brigades who have already left the US-dominated parts of northern Syria.
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The West’s war on itself
This is a great read addressing the concept of “preventing violent extremism” (PVE) that has shaped western policy for years: “(…) Western societies have not only ceased to exert meaningful pressure on abusive regimes abroad—they have also, increasingly, emulated some of these regimes’ worst practices. PVE is both the representation and rationalisation of this downward trend. On one hand, it drafts a diverse array of civilian foreign policy tools into the service of the war on terror. On the other, PVE’s convolution and halo of liberal moralism help obscure an uncomfortable reality: Western foreign policy has been reduced to an incoherent, almost hysterical effort to protect our borders from a threat that we fail to adequately define” “(…) the most important question of all may not be whether the West is winning or losing in its fight against terrorism, but how much of itself it is forfeiting in the process”
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‘The war is coming to an end, and the US should let it end’
Joshua Landis’ arguments might be unpopular but his core idea somehow addresses the realities on the ground. Just consider that the Assad regime definitely won’t share power with opposition groups and the West sticks to its policy of ‘limited intervention’. “What we need is rebuilding. Yes, it’s going to consolidate Shiite power and Iranian influence. But if we look at the population stretching between Iraq and Beirut, there are more Shiite Arabs than there are Sunni Arabs. You want to punish the majority of Arabs in this region because the Sunnis don’t have the political power? (…) Strangling trade doesn’t have any chance of bringing back Sunni power. The only thing that is going to bring back Sunni power is allowing this region to rebuild, to decrease sectarian animosity—which is at an incredibly high point—and let people build friendships and lives again”
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Foe not Friend - Yemeni Tribes and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
Don’t miss this great publication by Nadwa al-Dawsari who worked with Yemeni tribes for years and provides this helpful piece on tribal dynamics and Al-Qaeda in Yemen.
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