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MENAroundupMENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Mid
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| December 20 · Issue #69 · View online |
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MENAroundup MENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Middle East, focussing on Syria and Iraq. lars@menaroundup.com
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- The 8th round of UN-sponsored talks in Geneva has come to an end. UN envoy Staffan de Mistura criticized the regime’s insistence to only talk about what it calls “counter terrorism”. De Mistura also said that the regime’s delegation had introduced a new condition by insisting that there could be no political movement until all sovereignty was restored and “terrorism defeated in all Syrian territory”. Translated, this means: Forget about any political concessions.
- The US on the other hand declared that its forces will stay in Syria until the political process in Geneva makes progress. However, underlining the US’s declared legal basis for its operations in Syria, a OIR-spokesman added that ISIS poses a continuing threat.
- Pro-regime forces are fighting armed opposition forces in northern Hama and southeastern Idlib. Such forces include Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Ahrar al-Sham is not participating so far, but according to some reports, Nour al-Din al-Zenki is preparing to enter the battle. Idlib hasn’t seen major ground offensives for more than two years. The regime’s offensive will undoubtedly trigger political shifts in Idlib’s microcosm.
- While the regime redeployed the Tiger forces to the Hama/Idlib area, ISIS has launched counterattacks in eastern Syria. A Tiger forces commander blamed the Iranian-led Fatemiyoun militia for the loss of territory that the Tiger forces had handed over to the Afghan milita before. Obviously, the regime still faces shortages of manpower and capacity.
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For widows in Idlib, social ‘reintegration’ comes in the form of a mass wedding
A Kuwaiti organization is sponsoring weddings for those who cannot afford them. Each couple also gets $1,600 within the first year of their marriage which is a lot of money in Idlib’s discplacement camps.
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Civil society resistance against extremism
How did local communities in Syria react when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (Nusra’s, JFS’s…) jihadists claimed power? Haid Haid focusses on local structures and concludes that military control doesn’t go hand in hand with political power.
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Russia’s Brittle Strategic Pillars in Syria
Good overview of Russia’s efforts to gain leverage within Syrian state institutions and society. Ayman Aldassouky argues that the regime’s many centres of power and its heavy reliance on militias make it hard for Russia to consolidate power and counter Iran’s influence.
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How Syria's White Helmets became victims of an online propaganda machine
There are still some people out there who believe that Syria’s White Helmets are affiliated with terrorist groups. Here is some good reporting regarding propaganda efforts that worked out pretty well.
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Success for al-Qaeda in Syria?
Confused by Jabhat al-Nusra’s change of names and the discussion about its affiliation with al-Qaeda? Aymenn argues that “On balance, therefore, the evidence suggests that the formation of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and then Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham was not coordinated with Zawahiri”, concluding that the much discussed split between the groups appears to be real.
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