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| December 29 · Issue #70 · View online |
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MENAroundup MENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Middle East, focussing on Syria and Iraq. lars@menaroundup.com
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- 41 people with severe diseases were allowed to leave besieged East Ghouta in exchange for the release of 29 detainees held by the leading rebel faction Jaish al-Islam. This was a prisoner-swap (if you consider the more than 300.000 besieged people to be the regime’s prisoners) and not a concession.
- In a speech, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called Bashar al-Assad a ‘terrorist’ who hinders peace. In a way, Turkey has accepted Assad’s presidency but at the same time, Turkey’s efforts in northwestern Syria that include the establishment of an allied local administration, the training of local police forces, some kind of army and the support for the Syrian Interim Government suggest that Turkey does not intend to hand over the Euphrates-Shield pocket soon.
- According to reports, rebels in Bayt Jinn, a city in the northern part of rebel-controlled territory in the Syrian-Israeli-Lebanese border area, are negotiating a transfer to Idlib. Bayt Jinn has been encircled by Iranian-led units.
- In Idlib and Hama, the pro-regime offensive is ongoing. Dozens of fighters from all sides have been killed. Russian air and logistical support appears to be significant. Combined with a decline of arms deliveries to rebels, notably TOWs, the loyalist forces are advancing.
- Syrian State Minister for National Reconciliation Affairs Ali Haidar said that the so called deescalation zones would have no choice but join the (forced) local reconciliation process. The corresponding offensives in Hama, Idlib, Ghouta and Daraa are already ongoing.
- Important Syrian rebel groups, including Ahrar al-Sham, have rejected the Russian-led talks in Sochi that are scheduled for Jan. 29-30 in Sochi. The question who will and who will not attend remains open in general. The Kurdish YPG said that Russia has promised them to send a delegation of 155 representatives. Turkey still rejects such plans.
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Kommt nach dem IS die Rache? "Es ist undenkbar, einfach zu vergessen"
German read: I spoke with Kamiran Sadoun about tribal dynamics and the vicious circle of revenge that will shape the situation in eastern Syria.
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Are Shia Militias Jihadist?
Daniel Gerlach proposes a new term for the ideology of movements and fighters that so far are sometimes called “Shia jihadist”: muqawamism. A useful differentiation.
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Down but not out: ISIL will regroup and rise again
Hassan Hassan draws parallels between the Islamic State’s current situation and the time when it was allegedly defeated in Iraq. A closer look in IS documents from that time gives an idea of what could happen in the future:
“After our emancipation from the circumstances around the Sahwat (Awakening Councils) and with the end of that phase, in which the Sahwat presented a real danger to the dawlah (ISIL),” the document stated, “this period emerges as a period of planning and preparation for what comes after the American withdrawal … the real victor of this battle will be the one who knows how to plan and prepare for the post-withdrawal period.”
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What Went Wrong in Syria?
Former US ambassador in Syria, Robert Ford, talks about the US’s policy since 2011 and what went wrong. Key points: Stating that Assad should step aside, not enforcing the red line after Ghouta 2013, supporting the YPG instead of an Arab force. An important point that many observers never understood: Washington’s strategy was not to overthrow Assad but to provide rebels help to such an extend that Assad would negotiate.
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