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| January 24 · Issue #74 · View online |
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MENAroundup MENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Middle East, focussing on Syria and Iraq. lars@menaroundup.com
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- Following a Turkish outcry, the US administration backtracked on plans for a ‘border guard’ consisting of some 30.000 SDF troops. However, the training of such forces continues.
- Contrary to claims of various politicians, the legal situation of Turkey’s Afrin offensive is anything but clear. Anything that comes close to occupation is off-limits, but due to the organizational ties between the YPG and the PKK, Turkey has an argument to intervene in general.
- Since ‘Operation Olive Branch’ began, the rebel counteroffensive in Idlib/northern Hama has effectively stopped. Instead, government troops have entered the Abu Duhur Airbase without significant resistance. There is no confirmation so far, but obviously there has been an understanding that resulted in an Afrin-for-Idlib-Trade.
- There is a map circulating that shows an intended Turkish security zone along the border, including the city of Manbij. In March 2017, US troops intervened in the YPG-held city in order to prevent escalation between the Euphrates Shield rebels and YPG fighters. The Manbij military council has already stated that it will defend the city. So, if Turkey launches an attack, the US will have to choose between its ally on the ground and its NATO partner.
- ‘Operation Olive Branch’ also causes damage within the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), an opposition umbrella group supported by Turkey. The Kurdish National Council (KNC) is opposed to the PYD and member of the SNC but does not support the SNC’s support for the offensive on Afrin.
- Not to forget: Heavy bombardment in other regions continues. People in Eastern Ghouta are suffering badly.
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How Turkey’s Potential Afrin Push Measures Up Against
I spoke with Jasper Finke, an expert on international law, about the legal status of Turkey’s Afrin operation.
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Sultan verpflichtet
Turkey’s offensive in Afrin is also spearheaded by Syrian Turkmen groups that are leading forces in Turkey’s Euphrates Shield area. In this piece I provide an overview of the Turkmen community in Syria and how they cooperate with neighboring Turkey.
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Al-Hasakah Tribes: Fragmented loyalty
Worth reading assessment of tribal dynamics in the province of Hasakah (including an overview of the most relevant tribes): “(…) The tribe-based state of the Syrian Democratic Forces may turn into a “curse”, especially with the expansion of its control area in the two countrysides of Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo, where the Arab tribes are concentrated, amid fears of forming Arab tribal alliances that might harm the organizational structure of the Democratic Unionist Party’s military wing”
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Lessons Learned: A Year After the Fall of Aleppo
Abdullah Almousa identifies three main reasons for the fall of Aleppo in late 2016.
1. Infighting between some groups in Aleppo city, especially the attacks of Jabhat al-Nusra and the Zenki movement against the Fastaqim Union that led to a collapse of defense lines. 2. The withdrawal of large groups like Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and Liwa al-Tawheed into the countryside. That withdrawal began with the outbreak of an all-out war between ISIS and the armed opposition in early 2014 and left Aleppo’s defense to weaker groups. 3. Limited support provided by the Turkish based operations room (MOM), a shortage of heavy weapons and ammunition in particular.
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Israel’s “Safe Zone” Is Creeping Farther Into Syria
Great reporting by Nour Samaha on Israel’s efforts to face the perceived threat on its borders: “According to sources, the second phase, which is currently underway, includes, among other things, the establishment of a 40-kilometer, Israeli-monitored buffer beyond the Golan Heights, a Syrian border police force armed and trained by Israel, and greater involvement in civil administration in opposition-controlled areas in two southern provinces. The expansion of the project also involves military aid to a wider array of opposition factions in both Quneitra and Daraa. The wider buffer zone also sees partnerships being built up with Syrian opposition leaders, civil society leaders, NGOs, and health officials on the ground to work on joint educational, health, and agricultural projects”
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