What comes post-Aleppo

Revue
 
MENAroundupMENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Mid
 
December 21 · Issue #19 · View online
MENAroundup

MENAroundup
MENA Roundup is a weekly publication containing insightful articles on politics in the Middle East, focussing on Syria and Iraq. lars@menaroundup.com

Key developments
  • Efforts for so-called “evacuation deals” in Aleppo have been accompanied by interference of both pro-regime troops and rebels of the Jihadi spectre, including shelling and sniper fire.
  • However, thousands of people made it out of eastern Aleppo. Yet, their fate remains uncertain. There are credible reports of executions, looting and abductions conducted by pro-regime militias. 
  • The destiny of those who fled to rebel-held territory, notably Idlib and the northeast, remains uncertain as well. Assad may concentrate on Idlib after he “cleared” the areas around Damascus. But will Russia cooperate?
  • Still, thousands of residents hold out in east Aleppo. Evacuations are ongoing. The UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for “the U.N. and other relevant institutions to carry out adequate, neutral monitoring” of those evacuations, but don’t be fooled: There will be no adequate monitoring. This is simply an effort to portray the forced displacement as internationally legitimated.
  • Despite the assassination of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey met in Moscow. Core statement (drum roll): “There is no military solution to the Syrian conflict”. The meeting was a sign of the U.S.’s declining influence in the region. Any outcome, however, is uncertain.
Articles worth reading
How Iraq’s Army Could Defeat ISIS in Mosul—But Lose Control of the Country
Aleppo has fallen: But the Conflict is Far from Over
We Must Understand Syria as a Popular Struggle Despite Its Complications
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